"During the cusp of the invasion, Putin publicly dressed down his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, who expressed doubts about the wisdom of the aggressive policy Putin was following."
He was showing everyone what roles they were going to play. Vlad of the Commanding Tables was supposed to look STRONG. (Where have I heard that one before?) Then a big victory over the government of the Ukraine and it's army, which would be in as bad a shape as it was in 2014.
(That's where the Azov battalion comes in - the actual army just collapsed in 2014, much like US Army bases in the South just folded up at the start of the American civil war. Ukrainian public was pretty solidly against the war. The Army proper was down to 5000 men, and the Azov battalion composed of the hard right all the way over to the neo-nazi right picked up the slack. To their credit they did fight. Eight years of time-buying made for some enormous shifts.)
"But in either scenario, the removal of Putin won’t end Russia’s aggressive nationalism. The problem isn’t just Putin but the political cohort he belongs to. The siloviki isn’t going away easily."
No, they aren't. The problem is they are exactly the sort of people to double down and urge Putin to escalate hard. They are probably the ones reassuring Putin that he could win this one easy, Ukraine a plum ripe for the picking and Putin could get it done so fast the West would be unable to respond.
I don't think the RF's industrial complex is anywhere near as powerful & productive as it was; but it also doesn't appear to have improved at all over old Soviet practices. In fact it seems they have retreated backwards in time from the 80's. Even if Putin wins, even if he opts for total national mobilization (total war) RF forces are just going to get weaker. I don't see how the siloviki can hold on to power, not without the assistance from the Chinese assistance that the Chinese just refused to give them. (I read the public appeal from Putin for Chinese equipment as actually a request for China to come into the war officially and on his side. Xi refused because he looks out for #1.)
This continues to reek of the the old guys that tried to coup Gorbechev.
elm
hit play on the paused video of the soviet implosion
"During the cusp of the invasion, Putin publicly dressed down his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, who expressed doubts about the wisdom of the aggressive policy Putin was following."
He was showing everyone what roles they were going to play. Vlad of the Commanding Tables was supposed to look STRONG. (Where have I heard that one before?) Then a big victory over the government of the Ukraine and it's army, which would be in as bad a shape as it was in 2014.
(That's where the Azov battalion comes in - the actual army just collapsed in 2014, much like US Army bases in the South just folded up at the start of the American civil war. Ukrainian public was pretty solidly against the war. The Army proper was down to 5000 men, and the Azov battalion composed of the hard right all the way over to the neo-nazi right picked up the slack. To their credit they did fight. Eight years of time-buying made for some enormous shifts.)
"But in either scenario, the removal of Putin won’t end Russia’s aggressive nationalism. The problem isn’t just Putin but the political cohort he belongs to. The siloviki isn’t going away easily."
No, they aren't. The problem is they are exactly the sort of people to double down and urge Putin to escalate hard. They are probably the ones reassuring Putin that he could win this one easy, Ukraine a plum ripe for the picking and Putin could get it done so fast the West would be unable to respond.
I don't think the RF's industrial complex is anywhere near as powerful & productive as it was; but it also doesn't appear to have improved at all over old Soviet practices. In fact it seems they have retreated backwards in time from the 80's. Even if Putin wins, even if he opts for total national mobilization (total war) RF forces are just going to get weaker. I don't see how the siloviki can hold on to power, not without the assistance from the Chinese assistance that the Chinese just refused to give them. (I read the public appeal from Putin for Chinese equipment as actually a request for China to come into the war officially and on his side. Xi refused because he looks out for #1.)
This continues to reek of the the old guys that tried to coup Gorbechev.
elm
hit play on the paused video of the soviet implosion