The news from occupied Ukraine continues to be grim and contradictory. Russian forces have laid siege to Mariupol, issuing an ultimatum demanding it surrender by 10AM Monday local time. If not, Russia’s defense ministry warned, all those who remain in the city will face a military tribunal.
Amid these horrors, the shape of a possible peace deal is also becoming visible in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia being mediated by Turkey. Citing Turkish sources, the Financial Times reports
[T]he two countries were edging towards agreement on Kyiv declaring neutrality and abandoning its drive for Nato membership, ‘demilitarising’ Ukraine in exchange for collective security guarantees, what Russia calls ‘denazification’ and lifting restrictions on the use of Russian in Ukraine.
The paradox is that as Russian forces become more brutal, all signs point to the Russian government abandoning the core mission Putin originally outlined, which was incorporating Ukraine into Russia. There’s considerable evidence that Russian war aims have diminished in the face of Ukrainian resistance.
To gauge where the war stands now, I spoke with Anatol Lieven, visiting professor at King’s College London and senior fellow at the Quincy Institute. I’ve long admired Anatol’s books and articles about foreign policy and was grateful for the chance to talk to him.
(Post edited by Emily M. Keeler)
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Podcast: Putin’s Failed Mission